2Y Auction Tails As Foreign Demand Slides Despite Highest Yield In Over 3 Years

Ahead of today’s auction, with yields sliding early in the day tracking the drop in oil tick-for-tick, some speculated that participants in today’s sale of $69BN in 2 year notes would need a modest concession to show enthusiasm for the auction. And even though yields did push wider until the 1pm stop, it appears it was not enough and the auction was notably on the weak side.

Starting at the top, the high yield was 4.787%, a big jump from last month’s 4.204% and the highest since June 24, largely thanks to last week’s rate hike. To be sure, there is still some room before the 2Y takes out the generation high of 5.06% hit in 2023, but that was cold comfort to auction participants, and the auction tailed by 0.2bps the When Issued of 4.785%.

It wasn’t all bad: the bid to cover was 2.627, better than last month’s 2.599 and above the recent average of 2.606%. 

The internals were a touch weaker, with Indirects sliding from 66.01% to 57.79%, below the six-auction average of 58.6%. And with Directs rising to 29.0% from 23.1%, just above the recent average of 28.3%, Dealers were left with 13.2% of the auction, the highest Dealer allocation since March.

Overall this was an average auction, and while the internals were not too bad, the small tail suggested that the concession was not enough to inspire too much excitement.