Bolsonaro, Lula Tied In Latest Poll As Brazil’s Runoff Election Countdown Enters Final Week

Brazil’s right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traded barbs in their first presidential debate on Sunday night. The latest polling data show Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula has narrowed ahead of this weekend’s runoff election.

🚨 JUST IN: In a stunning moment, socialist Brazil President Lula THREATENS right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro on TV with a LEGAL PERSECUTION if he wins This is enraging. LULA: “On the 25th, you’re gonna LOSE your immunity. GET READY…you’re going to have problems. Your life is going to have a lot of investigations!” 😡 Bolsonaro clapped back, calling him CORRUPT and he’s spot-on 💯 If he loses, he loses his congressional protections, and Lula just told him on live TV what comes next. They want to go after him like his father! Back in April, Alexandre de Moraes also opened an inquiry into Flavio for “calumny” against Lula over an X post His father is already in prison, his brother Eduardo is in the U.S., and now the sitting president is promising more investigations for the son! VOTE FOR BOLSONARO AND END THE MADNESS

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 19, 2026

A BTG Pactual/Nexus survey showed Bolsonaro at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7%, a statistical tie within the poll’s two-percentage-point margin of error. A week earlier, the survey had Bolsonaro leading 51.6% to 48.4%.

An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg showed Bolsonaro ahead at 51.1% to 48.9%. That previous poll found Bolsonaro leading 53% to 47%. The poll’s margin of error is around one point. 

Lula’s recent poll boost likely stemmed from last week’s Senate approval of his plan to shorten the workweek, a centerpiece of his socialist agenda.

Earlier this month, Bolsonaro won the first round of the presidential election. Since 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first-round vote has rebounded to win a presidential runoff.

Goldman Sachs Latin America financial analyst Tito Labarta wrote earlier: 

Right-wing candidate is the favorite to win the presidential run-off 

After the first round of the general election on Sunday, October 4, right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) is the favorite to win the run-off round to be held on October 25. Indeed, Mr. Bolsonaro had 47.0% of valid votes in the first round against incumbent left-wing President Lula da Silva (PT) with 45.2%. 

Polls suggest that Mr. Bolsonaro will receive a larger share of the 7.6% of votes that went to the four non-competitive conservative candidates (note). In fact, most post-first-round polls show Mr. Bolsonaro leading the run-off by 4-6pp (Exhibit 1), and prediction markets also show him as the clear favorite, with Polymarket indicating a c.77% likelihood that he will win the election (Exhibit 2).

Labarta said Brazil’s rightward shift in Congress has already bolstered investor expectations for a more pro-market policy agenda, noting that “market-friendly policies can be a tailwind for equities.”