Initial Jobless Claims Hover At 57-Year Lows

For the fifth straight week, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time was less than 200k (199k)…

That is the longest streak below that level since 1969! (And remember, the labor force then was a fraction of what it is now).

Interestingly, Ohio, Tennessee, and California saw a rise in unadjusted claims last week…

Continuing claims remains low too – holding around 1.7 million Americans – the lowest level since March 2023…

However, as we noted last week, payrolls tell the other half of the story. September nonfarm payrolls came in at just +29k (with prior months revised down), well below the already modest recent trend. Net employment change is simply hires minus separations. When separations are that low but the net number is mediocre, hiring itself must have slowed substantially.

So the market has cooled mainly through reduced hiring rather than rising firings. That keeps the unemployment rate relatively contained (4.2% in September) even as it becomes harder for job seekers, switchers, and new entrants to land roles. 

Economists (including various Fed research notes) have been describing this as a stable-but-fragile equilibrium for a while: low layoffs prop things up, but the low hiring rate leaves little cushion if demand weakens further or a shock forces companies to start cutting.

It’s also consistent with slower labor-force growth from demographics and reduced immigration – fewer people needing to be absorbed means weaker payroll growth can still leave unemployment from rising sharply.

The bottom line is simple: the ‘low-hire, lowest-fire’ economy continues to roll along with no obvious signs of AI’s productivity surge (or replacement projections).