Amid ‘Compromise’ Chaos, Analyst Sees 90% Chance Of Iran War Round 3 As Hegseth Makes ‘Secretive’ Israel Visit

The Monday surprise visit of US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to Israel where he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set off an avalanche of speculation regarding the likelihood of another major round of fighting in the Iran war.

The trip has been presented by Axios as happening under some degree of secrecy, with talks having taken place at the Ovda Air Base in southern Israel, which plays host to US refueling planes and fighter jets. While the Pentagon did not immediately comment, Israeli media has also been reporting on the high profile visit to the airbase. The Trump administration has remained silent on the visit.

But what has taken over by Tuesday morning are more ‘deal imminent’-style headlines, coming out of Gulf-aligned sources:

Mediation efforts said that “Qatar and Pakistan presented a ‘compromise proposal’ that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides”, Al Araby Al Jadeed reports, citing unnamed officials.

The timing of all this is most interesting, given that in the Hormuz Strait, Iran is mounting daily attacks against international shipping (it’s been a record-breaking pace this month) – but with nothing seen in the way of direct retaliation by the US military. On the Arabian peninsula, the Houthis have stepped up ballistic missile strikes on Saudi Arabia, a situation which threatens to merge the Persian Gulf and Yemeni theatres of conflict.

Closer to home in Israel, the country’s parliamentary election is just a week away, and Netanyahu is in a tough battle with main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Netanyahu is doing what he’s done for his past couple decades in power – selling himself as the ‘war time leader’ – which President Trump has lately backed, calling him the “Great Warrior” prime minister (in a Truth Social endorsement).

“Donald, we have a job to finish. You said it, and we will finish it together,” Netanyahu subsequently told Trump in a phone call, following Trump’s public endorsement.

And related to the upcoming vote, the Israeli military has just been placed on its ‘highest state of alert’:

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir placed the military on its “highest state of alert” ahead of next week’s election and canceled soldiers’ leave, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Israel’s enemies not to test the country.

Zamir held an assessment Monday morning with senior officers, during which he “stressed that the IDF’s mission is to enable the democratic elections to take place on schedule and safely,” according to a statement.

He said the military is “on the highest state of alert and will continue to maintain a high level of vigilance and readiness across all fronts” in the coming period, ahead of the October 27 vote.

Neither Israeli media or officials have cited any other direct threat or provocation as driving the heightened military alert level.

Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute sees in all of this maneuvering signs of an imminent US-Israel military escalation against Iran. He lays out that “Things are looking very bad” in terms of the prospect for a third round of major war:

Between Trump’s coordination with Netanyahu – his bizarre endorsement of the Israeli war criminal and Heghseth’s surprise visit there – troop movements, and perhaps most importantly, a non-starter American proposal, the likelihood of a third round of the war is reaching 90% in my assessment.

As I have pointed out for weeks, Trump pretends the Strait is open and wants to exchange the lifting of the blockade for Iran’s 60% HEU instead of a reopening of the Strait. It’s understandable he wants a final deal right away. But it is unrealistic to expect a final deal without final-deal American compromises. As I understand it, Trump is not willing to offer that upfront, but wants Iran’s 60% HEU shipped out upfront. This won’t work and will likely lead to a third round of the war – before the midterms and possibly before Israel’s elections on the 27th.

Parsi has some further interesting insight on likely Iranian thinking concerning Washington insistence that nuclear negotiations be carried out as part of a comprehensive peace deal. Of course, Tehran has rejected this, saying time and again it will only address the nuclear file after the war concludes.

“All of these changes render a comprehensive deal less likely unless circumstances change considerably,” writes Parsi. “Instead, I suspect Iran mainly seeks temporary deals to lower the temperature in the immediate term, without ever seriously addressing the core nuclear issue until Trump leaves office.”

Fresh Tuesday reporting in Reuters seems consistent with this take – that Iran is ‘waiting out’ the Trump presidency (which should come as no surprise) and exploiting the compounding problems of his Operation Epic Fury:

Iran has deliberately prolonged talks with the US to try to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of November’s US midterm elections, senior officials say, while fears of renewed military action and deep distrust of Washington have reinforced Tehran’s reluctance to strike a quick deal to end ​the war.

Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran was convinced the US president was ready to resort to renewed attacks to try to ‌break the stalemate in the eight-month-old war.

“Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” one of the officials was quoted as saying. “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”

Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz told Reuters that in prolonging indirect talks that basically lead nowhere, “Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action.” And yet, ironically enough we are still seeing Gulf mediators pushing more diplomatic ‘deal imminent’ style headlines this week.