US-Iran Reportedly Agree To Concessions On Nuclear File, Oil Plunges

Update(0835ET): US-Iran headlines are once again swinging between mediator proposals and Tehran declaring it is “now in a state of war” after the Qeshm strike – which is a sadly all too familiar pattern from this past summer. The latest from regional sources are seeing oil prices drop lower:

• “Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran yesterday”, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports citing sources close to the mediation team.
• “Washington and Tehran have made concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear program and frozen funds”, Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.

WTI is back at its lowest level in three weeks…

Futures surged on the return to ‘optimism’ – even if briefly…

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Iran has said that three more tankers exploded and are on fire Tuesday after hitting naval mines while transiting through Strait of Hormuz without permission. 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) described that the ships had turned off their geolocation tracking systems as they crossed the southern part of the Strait. No casualties have yet to be reported. Also on Tuesday the IRGC claimed to have shot down two US Lucas drones over the coastal area of Bandar Khamir.

This comes atter the US reportedly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island late Monday, amid broader revelations that the Pentagon has been waging ‘limited’ strikes along Iran’s southern coast for the past weeks.

American officials have called the overnight Monday assault on Qeshm ‘defensive’ and aimed at preventing Tehran from threatening vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz

Axios has presented this narrative based on US administration sources: “The IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm island at a U.S. aircraft in the strait of Hormuz on monday night. The U.S. fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self defense, a U.S. official said.”

If accurate, this demonstrates that the Iranians have likely been firing at US military assets patroling the Strait of Hormuz this whole time – even if it doesn’t get media coverage.

The Wall Street Journal has noted, “Unlike earlier in the war, the U.S. hasn’t publicly announced the attacks.”

“The U.S. has been purposefully keeping the campaign quiet so as not to signal any intention of resuming major combat operations, one official said.

That all of this is only belatedly coming out now seems politically-timed, given that on Tuesday Americans go to the voting booths for the midterm elections, amid strong expectations that Democrats could take both the House and Senate.

Meanwhile, Reuters in a fresh Tuesday report says what everyone already knows: “Iran and the United States are still far from a deal to end their war, a senior Iranian official ​told Reuters on Tuesday, while mediator Qatar stepped up efforts to bridge differences and avert a renewed escalation after the US midterm elections.”

Qatar’s Foreign Ministery spokesperson has said, “If there were no glimmer of hope, there would be no negotiations.. and as ​a mediator, we cannot lose hope.” 

The official added: “The mediators came up with a new suggestion to move the process along, and it’s currently being studied by the two sides.”